Dr Tom O'Shea

My research focuses on advancing environmental intelligence through integrative, scalable modelling approaches that connect physical processes, social dynamics and infrastructural systems. I develop analytical pipelines that combine hydrodynamics, computational sociology, spatial analysis, AI/ML and narrative‑based methods to generate whole‑system insight into risk, resilience and urban change.

My early work at Aberystwyth and UCL reconstructed two millennia of flood exposure across British cities, establishing a long‑term perspective on hazard evolution. During my PhD at the University of Bristol - supported by the UBS & EWS Exceptional Contribution Award and a European Space Agency research grant - I created a novel framework integrating agent‑based modelling with the LISFLOOD‑FP hydrodynamic model, producing hybrid geographical narratives aligned with the Sendai Framework and UN SDGs.

Following my doctorate, I contributed to major interdisciplinary programmes including HyPAc (NERC SHEAR) in Kenya’s Nzoia basin, FRACTAL‑PLUS in Lusaka (co‑producing climate‑resilience strategies with the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre), and humanitarian hazard intelligence for the FCDO. I later supported the UKRI GCRF Tomorrow’s Cities programme, developing pro‑poor modelling metrics and rapid social‑data assimilation techniques for complex hazard environments. Work with the Lincoln Centre for Water & Planetary Health advanced long‑term climate‑adaptation pathways for vulnerable UK coastal communities.

During my recent research fellowship at the University of Salford and as a Senior Research Associate in Agent-Based Modelling at the University of Leeds, I expanded this systems‑modelling agenda into sustainable urban development, mobility transitions and behavioural modelling, including leading analytical development for the INFUZE project on pathways to reduced car ownership. I now support the expansion of this work at the University of Exeter, developing environmental intelligence architectures that integrate geospatial analytics, AI/ML workflows and complex systems modelling to support decision‑making in a rapidly changing world.

Alongside this applied systems work, I have cultivated a parallel research interest in the philosophical foundations of modelling, interpretation and technical systems. This strand has emerged organically from the interdisciplinary demands of my projects, where questions of meaning‑making, agency, narrative structure and system behaviour intersect with computational methods. Drawing on post‑structuralist thought and Simondonian philosophy of individuation, I am developing a conceptual programme that examines the interpretive dynamics of AI systems - particularly language models and long‑context architectures.

I am currently authoring Socio‑Environmental Complexity: System‑Led Remedies to Balance Our Conflicting Requirements of a Changing Planet (Ethics International Press, 2027), which synthesises these themes and argues for system‑led approaches to navigating planetary change. This monograph will be complemented by a forthcoming series of papers exploring the philosophical dimensions of AI, interpretation and technical individuation.

Qualifications:

• Bachelor's Degree (2011) in Physical Geography from Aberystwyth University
• Master's Degree (2012) in Geophysical Hazards from University College London
• Doctor of Philosophy (2023) in Geography from the University of Bristol
• Postgraduate Certificate in Education (PGCE) (2016) in Physics from Edge Hill University
• Graduate Certificate (2024) in AI and Machine Learning from Imperial College London