Dr Tom O'Shea

My research advances environmental intelligence through the development of integrative, scalable modelling approaches that connect physical processes, social dynamics, and infrastructural systems. I specialise in building reliable analytical pipelines that draw together hydrodynamics, computational sociology, spatial analysis, and narrative‑based methods to generate whole‑system insight into risk, resilience, and urban change.

My early work at Aberystwyth and UCL reconstructed 2000 years of flood exposure across British cities using geo‑statistical techniques, establishing a long‑term perspective on hazard evolution. This foundation expanded during my Ph.D. at the University of Bristol, where - supported by the UBS & EWS Exceptional Contribution Award and a European Space Agency doctoral research grant - I developed a novel analytical framework combining agent‑based modelling with the LISFLOOD‑FP hydrodynamic model. This research produced hybrid geographical narratives rooted in economics, sociology, philosophy, and ecology, and aligned with the Sendai Framework and UN SDGs.

Following my doctorate, I contributed to a series of interdisciplinary and internationally funded projects, including flood modelling in Kenya’s Nzoia basin (HyPAc, NERC SHEAR), climate‑resilience co‑production in Lusaka (FRACTAL‑PLUS), and humanitarian hazard intelligence for the FCDO and Red Cross networks. I later supported the UKRI GCRF Tomorrow’s Cities programme, developing pro‑poor modelling metrics and rapid social‑data assimilation techniques for complex hazard environments. My work with the Lincoln Centre for Water & Planetary Health further advanced long‑term climate adaptation pathways for vulnerable coastal communities, culminating in new insights into the evolving form of UK floodplains.

Across these roles, I have consistently designed and delivered scalable infrastructures for environmental modelling, ensuring that complex systems research can be operationalised, reproduced, and deployed across diverse contexts. My work emphasises reliable modelling pipelines, cross‑disciplinary integration, and bottom‑line impact for policymakers, practitioners, and communities. These principles underpin my current role as an Environmental Intelligence Fellow at the University of Exeter, where I focus on conceptualising and constructing modelling architectures that bridge disciplines and support decision‑making in a rapidly changing world.

I am also developing a forthcoming book, Socio‑Environmental Complexity: System‑Led Remedies to Balance Our Conflicting Requirements of a Changing Planet (Ethics International Press, 2027), which synthesises these themes and argues for system‑led approaches to navigating planetary change.

Qualifications:

• Bachelor's Degree (2011) in Physical Geography from Aberystwyth University
• Master's Degree (2012) in Geophysical Hazards from University College London
• Doctor of Philosophy (2023) in Geography from the University of Bristol
• Postgraduate Certificate in Education (PGCE) (2016) in Physics from Edge Hill University
• Graduate Certificate (2024) in AI and Machine Learning from Imperial College London